Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United contract was extended 100 days ago on Friday, and the century has seen more turbulent times than the Labour government, which also marks this milestone today. While Keir Starmer is unlikely to lose the next election, Ten Hag is not in the same situation.

Although it appears that he made it through a meeting of United’s decision-makers on Tuesday in London, it was yet another attempt at firing a manager nearing the end of his career. His squad is currently 19th in the Premier League in terms of goals scored, and they need to improve immediately.

Ten Hag’s decision to stay put is surprising given the evidence of this season, but a number of circumstances play a role. Joel Glazer and United’s co-owner, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, sat down at his offices in Knightsbridge, where they heard arguments for and against continuing with the under-pressure Dutchman.

Omar Berrada, the chief executive, Dan Ashworth, the sporting director, and Jason Wilcox, the technical director, should have seen enough to make more definitive decisions by now. Jean-Claude Blanc and Sir Dave Brailsford, two board members, may have also voiced their opinions.

But it’s not as easy as letting go of a manager who isn’t performing up to par. The majority of the possibilities for Ten Hag’s replacement have been debated in the summer, and none of them are very compelling. And there are the money concerns.

Ten Hag’s potential payment in the event of his dismissal has climbed to between £14 million and £15 million thanks to the one-year contract extension that went into effect in July. That is a significant amount for a football team that is losing money and is still on the brink of financial regulations set by the Premier League and UEFA.

In their year-end financial statements, United stated that they are still “committed to, and in compliance with, both the Financial Fair Play Regulations of UEFA and the Profit and Sustainability Rules of the Premier League.”

They were able to approve losses of £105 million between 2021 and 2023 after passing the three-year PSR monitoring period, but this necessitated some creative accounting in order to determine the permissible deductions. This is a team that has lost money for the last five years running, most recently £113.2 million.

The club has lost £257 million in the last three years, bringing its total losses over the previous five years to more than £370 million. Ratcliffe is certain that he can turn a highly influential club into a profitable venture, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen anytime soon. It would be difficult to spend £15 million to fire a manager you weren’t comfortable with in the summer, particularly after a £200 million transfer window.

It might also compel United to stop compensating anyone who is already employed and instead concentrate their hunt for a replacement on managers who are unemployed and available. It reduces the pool of potential candidates, with Graham Potter and Thomas Tuchel leading the pack.

At Old Trafford, the £15 million decision will not be made lightly, but if the team’s performance stagnates, it can end up in a lose-lose situation. Champions League money is essential for United to begin converting large losses into more tolerable amounts and allay worries regarding PSR.

United won £93.1 million when they last advanced to the quarterfinals of the Champions League in 2018–19. It was only £37.5m when they advanced to the quarterfinals of the Europa League in 2022–2023. That illustrates how much money separates the two competitions, and how much more there is.

At this point, it appears that there won’t be a spot at Europe’s top table for next season. Under Ten Hag, neither of these outcomes appears realistic, but United still has a chance to win the Europa League and have plenty of time to catch up in the fourth place competition. It may cost Ratcliffe £15 million to play the roulette successfully and hope for a change of luck.